Canada's 2023 Home Prices: What Do Experts Predict?
Wondering what’s in store for the housing market in 2023?
2022 was certainly full of ups and downs, with Canadian home values peaking in February 2022 and then slowly declining as surging interest rates made already-high home prices unaffordable for many. Though list prices have dropped somewhat, high inflation and stagnant wages have reduced buyer demand, resulting in a slower market with challenges for both buyers and sellers.
So, what does the future hold? We’ve rounded up the top opinions from leading real estate experts to see what they predict for home prices in 2023:
RE/MAX: Home prices will fall by 3.3% in 2023
Noting the general concerns around rising interest rates, RE/MAX experts predict a slight decline in home prices for 2023. In a significant change from 2022, the firm also reports that 55% of regions are “likely to shift to balanced or buyer’s markets.”
CMHC: Home prices could decrease by 14.3% between Q1 2022 and Q2 2023
Compared to the national peak in Q1 2022, CMHC forecasters say the national average home price could decline by as much as 14.3% by Q2 2023. But despite this decline, forecasters expect that “ownership affordability will not improve as the benefit from lower prices will be offset by rising interest rates.”
CMHC expects 5-year fixed mortgage rates to remain high in 2023 before declining and stabilizing at 5.3% during the second half of 2024.
RBC: Cautious buyers keep prices down
Writing on behalf of RBC, economist Robert Hogue predicts that buyers will remain hesitant into 2023, “keeping prices on a downward trajectory in the near term.” The bank expects to see benchmark prices continuing to decline until spring 2023.
CREA: Balanced markets on the horizon
Speaking with Realtor.ca, CREA’s Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart expects market trends to remain much the same for the beginning of 2023. The economist sees “signs of stabilization,” citing the gradual decreases in Canada’s inflation rate. Although interest rates remain high, Cathcart forecasts that “the market will be more reasonable and more balanced” by the end of 2023 or early 2024.
As for home prices, CREA’s latest forecast projects a 0.2% increase for the national average home price in 2023. Meanwhile, national home sales are forecast to edge back by 2.3%.
Royal LePage: 1% decrease by the end of 2023
Phil Soper, President and CEO of Royal LePage, says, “while the volume of homes trading hands has dropped steeply, home prices have held on, with relatively modest declines. We see this as a continuing trend.” The firm predicts the deepest decline in the first quarter of 2023. But by the end of the year, the national average home price will only show a 1% drop.
Why only a 1% decrease? Soper credits Canada’s housing supply shortage as a significant factor.
The consensus seems to be that prices will fall slightly next year—what’s that mean for you?
Most analysts agree that homes will be less expensive, or at least remain stable, in the coming year before rising in 2024. If you’ve been thinking about buying a home, now is the time to connect with a real estate agent to see what’s available.
What do lower prices mean for buyers?
Though prices are dropping, high-interest rates are keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines. If you can afford to buy now, it’s a great moment to avoid competition that will likely enter the market when rates drop again. If you can’t, you should spend this time working on your finances—especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Keep saving for your downpayment so that you're ready when you can afford to buy. If you already own a home, use this time to repair and update your property and maximize curb appeal so that you get top dollar when you sell.
What do lower prices mean for sellers?
Though prices have come down in recent months, home values are still high. If you bought your home more than five years ago, you’ve likely accrued a record amount of equity. Listing your home now and cashing in before values drop further might be advantageous, depending on your circumstances. Get in touch with an expert real estate agent to discuss your specific situation.
Ready to see what’s available?
Our team prides itself on being local experts. We can discuss the best strategy to help you either buy or sell your home. Reach out to us today and let us know about your goals for the year.